The Crisis This Time
William J. Perry and Ashton B. Carter (secretary of defense and assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, respectively) have some experience in dealing with Pyongyang. Both were involved in planning military strikes in North Korea in 1994 in case Clinton wasn’t able to buy off Kim, and they were still around when North Korea lobbed a missile over Japan in 1998. They have co-authored an op-ed piece in today’s New York Times which concludes with advice to President Bush, in the form of three "central principles" to be kept in mind when dealing with North Korea:
1. North Korea must not be allowed to produce nuclear weapons in any kind of quantity
2. U.S. strategy toward North Korea can only work with the full support of our two allies in the region, South Korea and Japan.
3. The situation is urgent: North Korea could produce a significant amount of weapons-grade plutonium in "a matter of weeks."
The authors assert that even though this is a crisis situation, it is not unmanageable. What the situation requires, they say, is "equal parts credibility and courage," i.e., the United States must be willing to go to war to prevent North Korea from becoming a major nuclear power, and the administration must be able to make this clear to Pyongyang.
Wait a second…didn’t they say an effective strategy requires the support of South Korea? Not only has South Korea not given any indication that they would support the United States in such a bellicose stance, Seoul indicates they want conciliation with North Korea. Sunshine, they call it. This is unlikely a wise policy option, but with all the North Korean artillery aimed at Seoul, the chimerical desire for peace at any price is understandable.
Messrs. Perry and Carter seem to want to take a hard headed approach to North Korea, but in doing so they are apparently oblivious to the diplomatic realities constraining U.S. actions. At this point the United States is in no position to credibly threaten Pyongyang with offensive military action. Given the paucity of options, maybe the best thing for the U.S. is just to leave Korea.
William J. Perry and Ashton B. Carter (secretary of defense and assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, respectively) have some experience in dealing with Pyongyang. Both were involved in planning military strikes in North Korea in 1994 in case Clinton wasn’t able to buy off Kim, and they were still around when North Korea lobbed a missile over Japan in 1998. They have co-authored an op-ed piece in today’s New York Times which concludes with advice to President Bush, in the form of three "central principles" to be kept in mind when dealing with North Korea:
1. North Korea must not be allowed to produce nuclear weapons in any kind of quantity
2. U.S. strategy toward North Korea can only work with the full support of our two allies in the region, South Korea and Japan.
3. The situation is urgent: North Korea could produce a significant amount of weapons-grade plutonium in "a matter of weeks."
The authors assert that even though this is a crisis situation, it is not unmanageable. What the situation requires, they say, is "equal parts credibility and courage," i.e., the United States must be willing to go to war to prevent North Korea from becoming a major nuclear power, and the administration must be able to make this clear to Pyongyang.
Wait a second…didn’t they say an effective strategy requires the support of South Korea? Not only has South Korea not given any indication that they would support the United States in such a bellicose stance, Seoul indicates they want conciliation with North Korea. Sunshine, they call it. This is unlikely a wise policy option, but with all the North Korean artillery aimed at Seoul, the chimerical desire for peace at any price is understandable.
Messrs. Perry and Carter seem to want to take a hard headed approach to North Korea, but in doing so they are apparently oblivious to the diplomatic realities constraining U.S. actions. At this point the United States is in no position to credibly threaten Pyongyang with offensive military action. Given the paucity of options, maybe the best thing for the U.S. is just to leave Korea.
posted by Jacob at 1/19/2003 08:38:00 PM
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