Saturday, June 05, 2004

Ontario Going Tory

The Ipsos-Reid poll released last night shows that the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals in Ontario. According to the poll, the Conservatives have the support of 35% of Ontario voters with Liberals sitting in second place at 32%. Nationally, the Liberals have a slim lead of just one percentage point (Liberals 32%, Conservatives 31%).

Projections based on these numbers would put the Liberals and Conservatives at a virutal tie in the number of seats in the House of Commons. However, as I've mentioned before, national polls have historically inflated Liberal support and underestimated Conservative support. If that's the case on June 28, then Canada will most likely wake up with a Conservative minority government.


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