Monday, June 21, 2004

Neck and Neck

It appears that the close race between the Liberals and Conservatives continues into the last week of the Canadian federal election campaign. According to the SESresearch tracking poll, the Conservatives, stung by a series of campaign setbacks, fell behind the Liberals over the weekend, reversing the trend of Conservative momentum up to that point. However, by Sunday, the parties were tied with 33% each, suggesting that, while the Conservative momentum has stalled, the Liberals don't seem to be gaining a great deal from the Conservatives' blunders. It would appear that the desire for change remains strong in Canada.

One party that doesn't seem to be losing any support is the Bloc Quebecois, which looks set to take at least 58 of Quebec's 75 seats, if not more. The only place some movement might occur now is probably Ontario, but even there, it's hard to see much change in voter sentiment. Atlantic Canada will also be interesting to watch as it showed a marked move to the Conservatives over the last ten days.

In any case, it looks as though the Liberals and Conservatives are involved in a minority dance to see who will get the most seats, to be followed by a game of kissing up to the New Democrats and the Bloc.


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