Wednesday, June 16, 2004

The Day After the Debate

According to the daily SESresearch tracking poll done the day after the English debate, the Canadian electorate continues to give a slight edge to the Conservatives. In the poll, the Tories garnered 34% to the Liberals' 32%. It's a bit early to judge from just one poll, but it looks as though the debates will do nothing to turn this election around for the stumbling Liberals. And, considering the vote distribution for the various parties, it looks as though Canada will come out of this election with a Conservative minority government.

Immediately after the debate, both Stephen Harper and Paul Martin headed to southern Ontario, which seems to be the only real battleground left. French Quebec is solidly in the Bloc camp, while Western Canada will remain predominantly Conservative. But as far as Ontario goes, it looks likely that the Conservatives will come out with the most seats and there isn't much the Liberals can do to stop it.

It appears that a large chunk of Ontario voters don't believe Liberal scare tactics used against Stephen Harper. In fact, even many columnists, some grudgingly, had to admit that Harper came off as the most "Prime Ministerial" (whatever that means) of the four party leaders. The only change in voting patterns between now and the election on June 28 could possibly be more movement to the Conservatives.


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