Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Conservatives Moving Further Ahead

Today's SESresearch tracking poll has the Conservatives four percentage points ahead of the Liberals. Despite attacks on Conservative social and fiscal policy, the Liberals continue to lose ground against Stephen Harper's Conservatives. And most importantly, they're losing the ground in Ontario. In fact, the Conservatives now have a ten point lead in Canada's most peopled province. We could be seeing a huge transformation here in terms of the Ontario vote. At this point, it's starting to look as though the Conservatives could take all rural Ontario seats from the Ottawa valley right down to the southern tip of the province. Included in this could also be suburban Toronto along with a few seats in the city itself, such as the affluent Don Valley ridings. If this continues, I have to start wondering if a Conservative majority, or at least a substantial minority, isn't in the cards. To obtain this, the Conservatives will have to do extremely well in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia in order to make up for their weakness in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. But who knows we may even see some of the areas like Compton and Stanstead in Quebec go Conservative. Dare we dream??

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